prediction map based on new assumptions: Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004. Previous maps used linear regression on the numbers to generate the prediction. This one uses the following assumptions: voters who already have made a choice will stick to it; the undecideds will break 2:1 for the challenger (Kerry); If Nader is on the ballot, he will get 2%, otherwise 0% (was 2.74% nationally in 2000); the minor candidates such as Badnarik, Cobb, etc. will get 1% of the vote (was 1.01% in 2000). Currently, it suggests 311 Electoral Votes for Kerry to 227 for Bush.
The Florida ballot
Kottke wonders
about weblog advertising: The revolution will be commercialized.
Paul Krugman in the Times
today weighs in on all the talk about the draft: are over, people are going into Rove-watch mode. When and where will the October surprise come from? Who’s going to be in on the whisper campaign? How many Democrat registration forms are going to be destroyed? How many people impersonating FBI Agents are going to try to scare African-American voters on The Day?Now that the debates
